8501.0 - Retail Trade, Australia, Jul 2005

ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 30/08/2005

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Main Features
About this Release

JULY KEY FIGURES

		Jul 05	Jun 05 to Jul 05
		$m	% change

Turnover at current prices
	Trend estimates	17 109.8	0.4
	Seasonally adjusted estimates	17 134.4	0.0

Monthly turnover, Trend estimates - % change
Graph: Monthly turnover, Trend estimate, Percentage change

JULY KEY POINTS

TREND ESTIMATES

The trend estimate of turnover for the Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services series increased by 0.4% in July 2005. This follows increases of 0.5% in June 2005 and 0.4% in May 2005.
In July 2005, there was an increase in the trend estimate in all states except the Northern Territory. The largest increases occurred in Western Australia (+0.9%), Queensland (+0.5%), Victoria and the Australian Capital Territory (both +0.4%).

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES

The seasonally adjusted estimate of turnover for the Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services series was unchanged in July 2005. This follows revised increases of 1.1% in both June and May 2005.
Queensland (+2.1%), Tasmania (+1.9%) and South Australia (+1.7%) were the only states to have an increase in the seasonally adjusted estimate in July 2005. New South Wales (-1.1%) and Victoria (-0.8%) had the largest decreases.
All industries except Food retailing (+1.0%) and Hospitality and services (unchanged) had a decrease in the seasonally adjusted estimates for July 2005.

ORIGINAL ESTIMATES

In original terms, Australian turnover increased by 1.8% in July 2005 compared with June 2005. Chains and other large retailers (which are completely enumerated) increased by 0.4%, while 'smaller' retailers (the sampled units) increased by 3.7%.
Australian turnover increased by 1.9% in July 2005 compared with July 2004. Chains and other large retailers increased by 2.7%, while 'smaller' retailers increased by 0.9%.

NOTES

CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

The seasonally adjusted and trend series have been updated following the normal annual review of the seasonal adjustment process.

SAMPLING ERRORS

Standard errors for the Australian estimates (original data) for July 2005 contained in this publication are:

Data Series	Estimate	Standard error

Level of retail turnover ($m)	16 750.3	118.9
Change from preceding month ($m)	296.9	86.4
% change from preceding month (%)	1.8	0.5

For more information see the Explanatory Notes, paragraphs 32-36.

INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Graham Phillips on Canberra (02) 6252 5625.

INDUSTRY TRENDS

MONTHLY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES

TOTAL RETAIL

There has been moderate growth in the trend for five months, with Food retailing and Hospitality and services having had at least moderate growth in each of these months.

FOOD RETAILING

There have been six months of moderate trend growth. Western Australia has had five months of strong growth and New South Wales, Queensland and South Australia have had at least four months of moderate growth.

DEPARTMENT STORES

After four months of weak trend growth there was no change in the trend estimate in July 2005. Queensland, Western Australia and the Australian Capital Territory have had at least three months of moderate or strong growth, while New South Wales has had a decline in the trend estimate for three months.

Graph: Industry trends_Department stores

CLOTHING AND SOFT GOOD RETAILING

Growth in the trend has been slowing since March 2005, with weak growth for the last three months. Queensland and Western Australia have had six months of strong growth, South Australia has had four months of moderate growth and New South Wales and Victoria have had weak growth or a decline in the trend estimate in each of the last three months.

Graph: Industry trends_Clothing and soft good retailing

HOUSEHOLD GOOD RETAILING

After three months of moderate growth there was weak growth in the trend for July 2005. Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia and the Australian Capital Territory have had moderate or strong growth for at least three months. New South Wales has had weak growth for two months while South Australia has had a decline in the trend estimate for six months.

Graph: Industry trends_Household good retailing

RECREATIONAL GOOD RETAILING

Growth in the trend has been slowing since March 2005 with a decline in the trend estimate for July 2005. New South Wales has been in decline for six months, while Victoria, Queensland, and the Northern Territory have had a decline for one to three months.

Graph: Industry trends_Recreational good retailing

OTHER RETAILING

The trend series has been in decline for ten months. New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia and Western Australia have had a decline in the trend for at least seven months.

TOTAL RETAIL (EXCLUDING HOSPITALITY AND SERVICES)

Total retail (excluding Hospitality and services) has had weak growth for 12 months. Over the last five months, the rate of trend growth for Total retail (excluding Hospitality and services) has been slower than Total industries (including Hospitality and services).

Graph: Industry trends_Total retail (excluding Hospitality and services)

HOSPITALITY AND SERVICES

There has been strong trend growth for four months. Victoria, Queensland, South Australia and Western Australia have had at least four months of strong growth. In contrast, Tasmania and the two territories have had a decline in the trend estimate for at least two months.

Graph: Industry trends_Hospitality and services

STATE TRENDS

MONTHLY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES

NEW SOUTH WALES

There have been nine months of weak trend growth. Food retailing and Hospitality and services have had four months of moderate growth, while Department stores, Recreational good retailing and Other retailing have been in decline for three, six and 13 months respectively.

VICTORIA

There has been moderate trend growth for five months. Household good retailing and Hospitality and services have had four months of moderate or strong growth. After six months of moderate growth, Food retailing had weak growth in July 2005.

QUEENSLAND

There has been moderate growth in the trend for five months. Clothing and soft good retailing and Hospitality and services have had strong growth for at least six months. Food retailing and Department stores have had at least three months of moderate growth. Other retailing has been in decline for nine months.

SOUTH AUSTRALIA

There has been weak trend growth for three months. Household good retailing and Other retailing have had a decline in the trend estimate for at least six months. In contrast, Hospitality and services has had five months of strong growth.

WESTERN AUSTRALIA

There has been strong growth in the trend for four months. Food retailing, Clothing and soft good retailing and Hospitality and services have had strong growth for at least five months. Department stores and Household good retailing have had at least six months of moderate growth.

TASMANIA

There has been weak trend growth for six months. Hospitality and services has had a decline in the trend for five months. Food retailing has had six months of weak growth and Recreational good retailing has had five months of strong growth.